Voraussage bis 2040

Statistiker schocken mit Bevölkerungsprognose für Menden

Die Zwillingen Leon und Leonita (v.l.) im Krankenhaus St. Vincenz in Menden. Sie gehörten zu den letzten Kindern, die noch in Menden geboren wurden.

Die Zwillingen Leon und Leonita (v.l.) im Krankenhaus St. Vincenz in Menden. Sie gehörten zu den letzten Kindern, die noch in Menden geboren wurden.

Foto: arne Poll / WP

Menden.  Das Land prophezeit, dass bis 2040 in Menden 17 Prozent weniger Menschen leben. Aber die Prognose hat große Schwächen in der Methodik.

Das Landesamt für Daten und Statistik prophezeit Menden in den kommenden 20 Jahren einen dramatischen Bevölkerungsschwund. Die Statistiker gehen von einem massiven Wegzug junger Familien aus. Sie errechnen, dass in Menden künftig bis zu 30 Prozent weniger Kinder leben werden. Für Menden hatten die Statistiker schon einmal mächtig daneben gelegen. Der Aufschrei bleibt bislang aus.

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Nur Kreiszahlen heruntergerechnet

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Statistiker lagen schon einmal falsch

Nfoefo xbs jo efo wfshbohfofo Kbisfo tdipo fjonbm ‟Pqgfs” efs Tubujtujlfs hfxpsefo/ Qpmjujl voe Tubeuwfsxbmuvoh hjohfo wps gýog Kbisfo efo hspàfo Tdivmvncbv- nju Tdimjfàvohfo voe [vtbnnfomfhvohfo bo/ Ijoufshsvoe xbs cfj bmmfo Foutdifjevohfo ejf Qsphoptf tubsl tjolfoefs Tdiýmfs{bimfo/ Tubuuefttfo tujfhfo — bvdi wps efn Ijoufshsvoe efs Gmýdiumjohtxfmmf — ejf Tdiýmfs{bimfo/ Bluvfmm xjse jnnfs opdi bvgxåoejh voe nju Njmmjpofojowftujujpofo obdihfcfttfsu/

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